Makau Mutua Predicts Kalonzo, Gachagua Bitter Fallout Soon: "Staged Unity"

• Makau Mutua suggested that the political unity between Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka won't last to test the 2027 pre-election politics
• According to Mutua, Gachagua gravitated toward Kalonzo for selfish reasons, specifically to use him in fighting President William Ruto
• Nonetheless, despite the naysayers' opinions, Gachagua and Kalonzo have vowed to stick together and solidify their bases to challenge Ruto out of power in the next vote

The current political dalliance between former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has become the talk of the town, with some seers suggesting that it is a quicksand that would collapse with time.

Makau Mutua said their unity is a short-lived political escapade fuelled by a hysteria that won't stand the test of time.

Does Gachagua intend to use Kalonzo?

According to Mutua, who currently serves as President William Ruto's advisor on constitutional matters, Gachagua only wants to use Kalonzo to get back at his former boss (Ruto) following his impeachment last October.

He observed that in their current formation, the former deputy president wants to commandeer Kalonzo and capitalise on the latter's political capital to avenge Ruto.

But Kalonzo is apparently aware of such a game plan, according to Mutua.

And as a seasoned politician with experience spanning decades, the Wiper leader will not accept to play second fiddle to Gachagua, who only came to the scene less than ten years ago.

It can only work if Gachagua agrees to toe Kalonzo's line, he suggests.

According to Mutua, Kalonzo will soon detach himself from the "united opposition" axis to forge his path without the likes of Gachagua.

"Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka and disgraced ex-DP Rigathi Gachagua will soon fall out in spite of their staged shows of unity. Mr Gachagua wants to subordinate Musyoka to him and misuse him in his war against President William Ruto. Musyoka knows this and will call Gachagua’s bluff soon," Mutua predicted on X.

What political analyst said about Kalonzo, Gachagua's unity

Mutua's sentiments marry with the perspective of Karen Mwangi, a pollster and political analyst, who appreciates that the unity between Kalonzo and Gachagua may be hampered by structural challenges.

She says the duo regard themselves as political heavyweights and will therefore shun any idea to politick under either of them.

According to Karen, having shelved his bids previously, Kalonzo may not buy the idea of supporting anyone else, Gachagua included, and sees 2027 as the ideal time for him to return to the ring after his last shot in 2007.

At the same time, Gachagua sees himself as having come of age politically and will hence want to be at the forefront, leading the opposition troops against Ruto.

The former deputy president, if cleared to run for office, may not wait for another 'opportune' time than 2027 to face off with Ruto as revenge following his ouster.

Such factors posed a challenge to the two leaders' unity, and hence, they may choose to go their separate ways, according to Karen.

"The fundamental challenge lies in the question of leadership hierarchy. Both Kalonzo and Gachagua have presidential ambitions, and neither has definitively stepped aside for the other. Kalonzo has run for president multiple times and may see 2027 as potentially his last realistic shot, while Gachagua's impeachment from the deputy presidency likely fuels his own ambitions for the top job," Karen told TUKo.co.ke.

Karen, however, affirms the chances of the duo forming a remarkable force that might become a headache for Ruto.

They only ought to be alive to the fact that they may not both run at one go, and that they need to be selfless if only they seek to defeat Ruto.

"The alliance will probably hold together through 2026 as they build momentum against Ruto, but face a critical test in early 2027 when they must decide on a single presidential candidate. If they can resolve the leadership question - possibly through a primary or negotiated agreement - they could present a formidable challenge. If not, the familiar pattern of opposition fragmentation over personal ambitions may repeat itself," she added.

Can Gachagua make Kalonzo president?

Separately, the former deputy president promised to help Kalonzo ascend to power in 2027.

According to him, voter numbers would be the key to unseating Ruto.

He encouraged the people of Ukambani to register in large numbers, aiming for a voter base of at least four million.

This, combined with his estimate that Mt Kenya will have 10 million registered voters by 2027, would bring their coalition’s total to no less than 14 million votes.

Proofreading by Asher Omondi, copy editor at TUKO.co.ke.

Source: TUKO.co.ke