Majority of Kenyans Want Raila Odinga to Vie for Presidency in 2027, New Poll Shows

• A survey by TIFA Research shows that the majority of Kenyans believe ODM leader Raila Odinga will rejoin the opposition before the next election
• The survey findings indicate that only 23% of Kenyans want Raila to support President William Ruto's 2027 reelection bid
• The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 6, 2025, among 2,024 respondents across nine regions

Amos Khaemba, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over four years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.

Nairobi - TIFA Research has released its survey findings regarding former prime minister Raila Odinga's political direction ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Will Raila Odinga contest for the presidency in 2027?

The opinion poll results shared on Wednesday, May 28, show that a majority of Kenyans believe the ODM leader will be on the ballot come the 2027 presidential election.

According to the survey, 46% of the respondents interviewed believe that the former PM will rejoin the opposition before the next election.

From the poll, 28% of respondents say Raila will join the opposition and vie for the presidency, while 18% of Kenyans believe he will support another candidate.

Meanwhile, 23% of the respondents expect the ODM leader to support President William Ruto’s re-election bid.

On the other hand, the TIFA survey shows divided opinions about the broad-based government.

According to the survey results, 54% are against the broad-based government agreement, whereas 22% support it.

From the survey, 25% of the respondents are divided on whether to support the broad-based government or not.

“These findings suggest a politically fractured country, with the BBG struggling to inspire confidence, particularly among those hardest hit by the current economic climate," TIFA Research said.

Respondents, mainly from Nyanza, Coast and Rift Valley, support the broad-based government arrangement.

The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 6, 2025, among 2,024 respondents across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt. Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western.

The survey was conducted through telephonic interviews conducted in Kiswahili (mainly) and English. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.17%.

Will Raila Odinga vie for the presidency in 2027?

In a related development, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader hinted at a political split with President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Although ODM recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ruto’s UDA party, Raila has now revealed that his party will contest against the incumbent in the upcoming election.

Speaking in Mombasa on Saturday, April 6, Raila announced that ODM will present a presidential candidate to challenge President Ruto.

He clarified that the MoU does not mean ODM has joined the Kenya Kwanza government.

According to Raila, the agreement was intended only to support the president in stabilising the government and the economy.

The former prime minister insisted that when election time arrives, ODM will front its own presidential candidate despite the current deal with the president.

Proofreading by Mercy Nyambura, copy editor at TUKO.co.ke.

Source: TUKO.co.ke